Is COVID-19 to Blame? Trends of Incidence and Sex Ratio in Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes in Germany.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the incidence of pediatric type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany during 2 years of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (2020-2021) compared with the control period 2011-2019. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on T2D in children (aged 6 to <18 years) were obtained from the DPV (German Diabetes Prospective Follow-up) Registry. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidences for 2020 and 2021 based on data from 2011 to 2019, and these were compared with observed incidences in 2020 and 2021 by estimating incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Incidence of youth-onset T2D increased from 0.75 per 100,000 patient-years (PYs) in 2011 (95% CI 0.58, 0.93) to 1.25 per 100,000 PYs in 2019 (95% CI 1.02, 1.48), an annual increase of 6.8% (95% CI 4.1, 9.6). In 2020, T2D incidence increased to 1.49 per 100,000 PYs (95% CI 1.23, 1.81), which was not significantly higher than predicted (IRR 1.15; 95% CI 0.90, 1.48). In 2021, the observed incidence was significantly higher than expected (1.95; 95% CI 1.65, 2.31 vs. 1.38; 95% CI 1.13, 1.69 per 100,000 PYs; IRR 1.41; 95% CI 1.12, 1.77). Although there was no significant increase in incidence in girls in 2021, the observed incidence in boys (2.16; 95% CI 1.73, 2.70 per 100,000 PYs) significantly exceeded the predicted rate (IRR 1.55; 95% CI 1.14, 2.12), leading to a reversal of the sex ratio of pediatric T2D incidence. CONCLUSIONS: In Germany, incidence of pediatric T2D increased significantly in 2021. Adolescent boys were more affected by this increase, resulting in a reversal of the sex ratio of youth-onset T2D.

Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children and Adolescents During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany: Results From the DPV Registry.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Germany compared with previous years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Based on data from the multicenter German Diabetes Prospective Follow-up Registry, we analyzed the incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100,000 patient-years in children and adolescents from 1 January 2020 through 30 June 2021. Using Poisson regression models, expected incidences for 2020/21 were estimated based on the data from 2011 to 2019 and compared with observed incidences in 2020/21 by estimating incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: From 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2021, 5,162 children and adolescents with new-onset type 1 diabetes in Germany were registered. The observed incidence in 2020/21 was significantly higher than the expected incidence (24.4 [95% CI 23.6-25.2] vs. 21.2 [20.5-21.9]; IRR 1.15 [1.10-1.20]; P < 0.001). IRRs were significantly elevated in June 2020 (IRR 1.43 [1.07-1.90]; P = 0.003), July 2020 (IRR 1.48 [1.12-1.96]; P < 0.001), March 2021 (IRR 1.29 [1.01-1.65]; P = 0.028), and June 2021 (IRR 1.39 [1.04-1.85]; P = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: A significant increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in children was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a delay in the peak incidence of type 1 diabetes by ∼3 months after the peak COVID-19 incidence and also after pandemic containment measures. The underlying causes are yet unknown. However, indirect rather than direct effects of the pandemic are more likely to be the cause.